Sapphire

CPM Investing LLC - Research Publications

ETF Model Portfolios for High Return and Low Variability

Sapphire Publication Overview

Please see note on Success Factors for users of our model portfolios.

Overview

Sapphire is for those who are comfortable trading Focused 15 Investing portfolios and are comfortable with the 3x leveraged ETFs "UDOW" and "TYD." Portfolios 1-5 vary only by their aggressiveness; they hold the same ETFs. They are listed by increasing aggressiveness, based on expected return and variability.

The main portfolio on the publication is " Sapphire 25|75 - MAIN (sg325.2)." This is suitable as a long-term portfolio because it has a high return-to-variability ratio compared to others on the publication, has a high return compared to the DJIA, and a level of variability that is close to the Vanguard 60|40 balanced fund VBINX.

Please note that in the sg number, the ".2" refers to the version number. From time-to-time new ETFs may be added and the new portfolios will get a different version number.

If you have a short time horizon, select a portfolio that is less aggressive than this for your long-term portfolio. If you have a longer horizon, select one that is more aggressive.

Intended Subscribers

The Sapphire publication is designed for people who currently know how to trade ETFs or can learn over the course of a few weeks. For information about setting up an account and trading ETFs, please see this LINK.

Developing a solid understanding of the Focused 15 Investing investment approach is also important preparation before using the Sapphire publication. For information about the investment approach, please see this LINK. Also, feel free to reach out to us with questions.

Selecting a Sapphire Model Portfolio

When selecting a Sapphire model portfolio, select one that has a level of expected variability similar to or lower than your current investments. Use the selected model portfolio to get accustomed to the trading and volatility of the individual ETFs. When you are comfortable trading and want to use a more aggressive portfolio, shift to the more aggressive portfolio, if you wish, during a Plant season.

For Those with Experience Using Other Focused 15 Investing Portfolios

If you have been using the Focused 15 Investing Diamond publication, find the level of variability of the Diamond portfolio you have been using on the first page of the weekly publication. For example, if you have used Diamond 50|50's variability over the years, you can consider using the Sapphire portfolio(s) with similar levels of variability.

For Those with Accounts Invested in Mutual Funds

If you are just getting started with Focused 15 Investing, identify the asset allocation of the investments that you used most recently. Asset allocation mix has a large impact on variability in most traditional investment programs. The asset allocation mixes for commonly available alternatives are:

VBINX has a stock|bond allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.
VASGX has a stock|bond allocation of 80% stocks and 20% bonds.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is, of course, 100% stocks.

Select a Sapphire portfolio that has expected variability close to that of your recent investments. For example, if your prior investments had a similar stock|bond allocation as VBINX, the variability of your prior investments was probably about 12% (annualized weekly standard deviation of returns). Start with Sapphire-MAIN one that is less aggressive. As you gain more experience with Focused 15 Investing, you can select a different model portfolio.

For Those New to Investing

If you are new to investing, start with the least aggressive portfolio on the publication. Trade that portfolio for a several weeks until you are comfortable with the trading patterns and ETFs before switching to a more aggressive portfolio. If you do switch to a more aggressive portfolio, do so during Plant seasons.

This link describes the different performance characteristics of the portfolios on the Diamond, Sapphire, and Zircon publications, Link: Comparison of Diamond, Sapphire and Zircon.

This link describes the Plant-Wait-Harvest seasons, Link: Plant-Wait-Harvest.

ETF Model Portfolios for High Return and Low Variability

Sapphire Publication Overview

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